Channel operation status
The third quarter of 2014 continued the first half of the alternative tide, the outbreak period, but the overall economic environment weakened, the real estate market downturn, the impact of electricity shocks, coupled with the influx of a large number of competitors in the first half, making the second half of the lighting market, Business situation fell. Polarization trend continues to expand, second and third line market dealers actively explore new business model.1. Dealers as a whole to maintain healthy growthAfter nearly two years of manufacturers and businesses of the joint training, promotion, LED lighting market in 2014 to achieve rapid growth, LED lighting in the field of dealers have grown faster, some dealers on the brand, product, consumer market to understand the degree of control to deepen Improve the business model, the indicators are showing better performance.In contrast to the first half of the year, the average dealer growth rate of about 20.68%, and the growth surface has been expanded. From the growth indicators, the first three quarters, 85.2% of businesses have achieved growth, compared with the previous quarter increased by 10%, of which 48.5% of the dealer growth rate of 15% to 30%.From the efficiency indicators, the dealer’s profit and efficiency of the overall situation is quite good, the overall loss of the channel control within 10%, the average gross margin of 17.5% (relative to the manufacturer, the average gross margin is not high). Jiucheng dealers gross margin are basically more than 10%, of which more than half of the dealers concentrated in the 15% to 30% of the interval, in addition to nearly 10% of the dealer gross margin of more than 30%.In the first half of the year is inconsistent with the dealer level from the point of view, the three-line market and four-line market dealers average gross margin higher than the first-line, second-tier market. From the lamp variety point of view, lanterns, spotlight gross margin is clearly higher, and outdoor lighting gross margin was significantly higher than the indoor lighting field gross margin, commercial market average gross margin of about 18%, home about About 19%, courtyard, road more than 25%.From the market point of view, commercial products, the higher gross margin, light products, low gross margin. Most of the business operators according to the channel of the product gross margin are more than 15%, 20% of the business operators according to the end of the store’s gross margin is higher than 30%, while the light source sales of the dealer’s gross margin is slightly lower, More in 10% to 20%.2. High-speed growth began to brake, two-stage differentiation is still significantThe proportion of high-growth dealers is reduced. According to the results of the survey, the first three quarters, 22.1% of the turnover in 2014, an increase of more than 30%, or even 6.65% of the dealer growth rate of more than 50%, significantly lower than the previous quarter. The main reason is that the second half of the increasingly fierce competition, leading to growth in market share is diluted.Scale, business model, where the market areas are an important factor affecting the effectiveness. In the first half of our research to show a clear market and competitive situation, “big fish eat small fish”, the third quarter, the more obvious the trend. Large-scale dealers grow faster than small-scale businesses; sales decline (down more than 10%) of the dealers are mainly concentrated in the size of 500,000 yuan less than the small dealers, and the scale of more than 5 million yuan Dealers high growth (an increase of more than 30%) proportion is much higher than the small and medium-sized dealers.Mixed operation, multi-brand management has become an important feature of the entity channel. Diversification, multi-category (multi-brand, multi-category) growth will be faster than the franchise single brand and category of dealers, in addition to brand outlets or flagship stores, the majority of dealers are multi-brand management. From the results of the survey, the physical dealer brand stores are 1.93, 53% of the business operators operating more than two brands, 20.5% of the business operators operating more than three brands, including three-tier market stores operating the number of brands reached 2.48.The second and third tier market lamps are usually mixed with electrician, building materials, sales, joint sales, from the collection of data, about 15% of the business clearly marked lamps and electrical, electrical and other mixed operations, and the average growth rate of these stores and gross margin Higher than those who operate a single lamp.The overall proportion of the project has declined; retail channels, engineering channels and electric business channels to penetrate each other. From the survey results, the overall entity channels, the project channel sales accounted for 44%, down from the previous quarter. The second half of the physical shop accounted for the proportion of the overall project are about 40%, of which the scale of 500 million to 6 million shops accounted for a high proportion of about 50%. In addition, large-scale projects have been reduced, while small-scale indoor projects have increased. Nearly two years, LED product updates frequently, the price decline is greater, and the big brand product prices are relatively stable, take the project and wholesale shop operating efficiency is better. Engineering has become one of the important ways to store inventory.
3. 2014 growth trend clear, but the channel dealer confidence has declinedAccording to the “big lighting” full-media and CSAResearch joint research results show that the third quarter, the dealer’s confidence index fell compared with the first half, dealers in 2014, LED sales growth rate is expected to 25.5%, compared with the second quarter The end of the 35% down 10 percentage points. The second-tier cities are expected to grow at a rate of 26%.Pre-increase of business increased significantly over the previous period. From the confidence of the business point of view, more than 90% of dealers expect sales growth in 2014, but the growth is expected to increase the number of businesses, only about 24% of the business reflects the growth rate will exceed 30%, lower than the previous period 16 percentage points.Overall, the LED lighting market in 2014 in the high-speed growth stage, but the first 8 months later, the second half of the growth rate than the first half has slowed. The future trend of high growth will continue to be confirmed, but need to consider uncertain factors: First, by the environment, real estate control policies and credit policies, real estate shrinking larger, the interior decoration market is affected, LED lighting sales will also be influences. Second, with the government spending more cautious around the government to reduce the project, LED lighting project sales impact; Third, the continued decline in prices makes business business risk increases. Fourth, the impact of electricity business channel in the next period of time will continue to exist.With the process of urbanization to promote the pursuit of quality of life of consumers is getting higher and higher, green energy enjoys popular support, LED lighting products to promote the gradual penetration of the commercial and home market in the next two years will continue to maintain a high growth rate , A comprehensive replacement tide will promote the LED lighting market continued blowout.